The Search for Election Fraud
by Kenneth Capron
Very few people really understand fraud. Thank goodness. It is often hard
to recognize fraud even when it stares you in the face. When fraud is
undertaken with the participation of multiple actors, it is called collusion - a
type of fraud which is extremely hard to detect and even harder to unravel. The
players in collusion cover for each other. In reality, it is usually the innate
desire to brag about one's conquests that brings down fraud involving collusion
of friends and families. Either that or a whistleblower.
Most of the great incidents of fraud have come to light due to
whistleblowers. Enron, Madoff, baseball doping and the like. And that's
strange since becoming a whistleblower is a high stakes action undertaken by
courageous and frustrated people who believe in doing things right even if it
means destroying one's own life. Whistleblowers are shunned by co-workers, until
and unless their claims are proven. They are usually threatened with loss of
their jobs, or at least a loss of promotion and pay raises. They won't ever be
awarded "Employee of the Year". Some may even be rejected by friends and family
- or in the extreme they may experience physical harm. But the usual method for
keeping potential whistleblowers quiet is intimidation.
When investigating the possibility of fraud, the first thing one looks at
is the risk, the possibility that fraud could occur. If a business
or activity or organization has weak controls of its assets and transaction
processing systems, it is wide open to deceptive practices and defalcation. We
use the term "internal controls" to identify those practices which when
enforced will assure that assets are accounted for and that transactions get
recorded they way they should. Something as simple as making nightly business
deposits using locking bank bags - when the person who proves out at the end of
day is NOT also the person with a key to the night deposit bags. Change any of
those steps and you leave the door open to misappropriation of your
assets.
Red Flags
We label any significant weakness in internal controls as 'red flags.'
You've heard of something raising a red flag. Well that's what the term implies
- that there is a hole in the fence that protects you and yours from theft or
subterfuge. For simplicity sake, a red flag would exist if when you are cashing
a check, tellers gave you cash without counting it - twice. Although, some banks
have gotten lax on the end of day proof where you must account for all
variances.
In reality, balancing your checkbook is your most common internal control.
It could also be your red flag. You do balance your checkbook every month?
Actually, with our electronic society, it is best to check your account online
every day and make sure you know where your money is at all times. Got kids?
Yaa.
Before I proceed, I have to point out that a statement to the effect that
fraud "hasn't been found before" is in itself a double red flag. Speaking in
terms of probability, the fact that something hasn't happened before actually
increases the odds that it could happen now. And the longer it goes without
happening, the greater the likelihood that it will. In my experience as a fraud
investigator, if a client's employee used that excuse when being asked about
their activities, they almost automatically become a 'person of interest.' It is
at a minimum an indicator that someone is willing to look the other way -
they'll let some things slide in exchange for similar consideration in the
future.
Now let's look at how all this applies to the voter fraud concerns that is
being pursued like a fox on a field mouse by Maine Republicans. I sincerely
believe the GOP is right. I also believe that those who are fighting hardest to
keep accountability out of the voting process are the same forces who know that
there exists a potential that they may be caught. Call it instinct, or
experience, or dumb luck but I have a knack for stumbling into fraud
unintentionally. It is gut-wrenching when the owner of a business is told they
are missing a few million dollars at the hands of someone they trusted. It is
defeating to find a half million worth of rare books has disappeared from
your collection and no one noticed until you asked for just one.
GOP Paranoia
So what makes the GOP so paranoid about the voting system in Maine? Well -
they have good reason to be. First and foremost, the present system has more
gaps in internal controls than Swiss Cheese has holes. Whoever implemented
the current system really didn't either care, or know, about accountability.
Second, the system in use has been susceptible to fraud in other places. Third,
ACORN's presence in Maine is significant and ACORN has been convicted of voter
fraud in other places (
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-complete-guide-to-acorn-voter-fraud/).
"And who is this ACORN here in Maine?" asked the squirrel. Ask Jesse Graham,
head of the Maine People's Alliance and a major player (aka board
member) in USAction - an ACORN sister organization.
The Voting Machines
Now, let's look at the voting equipment in use. I'll use Portland as an
example since I don't have detail info on other parts of the state. Start by
Googling "Diebold voter fraud". There you will find cases involving the same
Diebold machines we use in fraud cases involving both parties. One that I find
convincing and humorous at the same time is the 2008 Clinton-Obama primary in
New Hampshire. I quote "
New Hampshire Vote Fraud"
"Curiously - with percentages so perfect as if someone was attempting to entrap the perpetrators—Democratic
Senator Hillary Clinton received 91,717 votes or 52.95% in precincts using
Diebold Accuvote optical scan electronic voting machines and 20,889
votes or 47.05% of ballots from precincts using hand-counted
votes.
Democratic Senator Barack Obama received the same
52.95% or 23,509 votes in hand-counted precincts and the same 47.05% or 81,495
votes in precincts using Diebold optical scanning tabulators, both according
to analysts at the Election Defense Alliance (EDA) who used results from the
New Hampshire Secretary of State website, raising questions as to how the
percentage swap occurred."
Clearly this is not just a Republican issue. It IS an issue about who
is controlling the inner workings of the voting machines. So what does that
mean? Aside from the facts that Diebold no longer makes voting machines, and
that it
settled an investigation by the SEC for inflating their
earnings by $127 million, there have been assertions that the software inside
the machines could be programmed to produce other than true results. But that's
impossible to prove. Why? Because no one has ever been allowed to look at the
software coding itself. Let me explain how it works. And for any doubting
Thomas's, I am a computer audit specialist and a former MCSE. Systems and data
management and analysis are another area of expertise.
In general terms, there is a card inside every voting machine which
contains the software programming that control how the machine counts votes. In
preparation for each election, that card is returned to the company that
programs them. There, the names of all the candidates and their district,
precinct, state and other data is added to a database which becomes part of the
card. Any updates to the counting software are installed and the card is
returned to the source to be put back in the machine.
Since no one has ever gained access to the software, one can only assume
that the card uses a proprietary chip and operating system. That usually means
that how it is programmed will be impossible to discern. But for simplicity
sake, lets be clear that only the programming firm can tell that card and the
machine it is in exactly how to count the ballots.
It is possible for human errors to slip into the programming such that all
votes for candidate A actually register as votes for candidate B. That could
also be simulated with fraudulent programming. That could be detected by
thorough testing and thus would require that a known sample of ballots is run
through the machine several times. Other human errors can occur. They can also
be simulated through programming. And most can be tested for with sample
ballots.
The problem occurs however if the software is programmed in such a way that
it behaves differently on one day than it does on another. It could in fact be
programmed to produce specific results on a certain day (voting day) but
different results on the day before or after. We don't currently test for this
nor do we use internal controls that might detect fraudulent programming. And
without access to the actual core software, we can't know what is happening
inside that proprietary software.
There are ways to reduce the probability of this happening - manual
recounts, exit polls, and random substitution of machines assigned to specific
voting places. In short though, there is a possibility that the voting machines
are producing faulty results.
I See Dead Voters
Another concern, the one the GOP is pursuing, is the use of shill voters.
That is, the registration of and the resulting vote of people who are not
in compliance with one or more voting requirement - such as residence,
citizenship, alive. Fact is, our voting lists are not well maintained. There are
many names on the current voter lists of people who have moved, or died, or
who-knows-what happened to them.
Now, it would be possible for election officials to fix the voter
list, but it would take a lot of work. Most people, especially if they move out
of state, don't bother to change their registration where they moved from.
Technically, there is nothing preventing someone who moved to, say California,
from voting in California in person AND in Maine by absentee ballot.
If someone dies, there is a reporting mechanism in place which is supposed
to channel that info back to the town clerks. Yaaaa ... but it doesn't work
perfectly. So if I know that someone who passed away is still on the voter list,
I can show up in their district and vote using their name. Ya - I don't need to
show a photo ID - I just need to say my name is John Doe and vote. Don't you
wish that voter list was accurate?
The trick that is feared most, the reason the GOP focused on a motel
address in South Portland, is the potential for bussing loads of people from
place to place, letting them vote and then moving on. With same day
registration, no photo ID, no requirement that election officials challenge that
persons credentials whatsoever ... well, that leaves one big huge red
flag in the whole voting process. Without the new law changing
same-day registration to a delayed registration-vote, we could bus in a
trainload of seniors, have them register using the train station address, let
them vote and buy them lunch at McDonalds. Who would know the difference. Under
the new legislation, it would now be necessary to bus in those seniors a few
days ahead and again on election day, and that would be such a pain.
So the GOP paranoia is justifiable as long as sound accountability
practices are not in use. In a perfect world, we should rebuild the voter lists
with accurate data probably every ten to twenty years. The census years would be
good years to correct the system. And again in a no-red-flags world, we should
use photo ID and a central registry. And we should randomly validate voting
machines - on voting day itself.
Why The Phony Statements From The Opposition?
My auditor's gut feeling can't seem to get around some of the statements
being made by people who oppose any improvements in accountability. The MCLU
(ACLU of Maine) is trying to dupe you into believing somehow that someone will
lose their rights to vote. Well, that's pure garbage. No one will lose any
rights. It may get a little less convenient to vote and require some additional
foresight. But greater accountability is much more important to the legitimacy
of your vote than convenience. So why even suggest the loss of rights?
Big RED FLAG!!
I would go so far as to ask why the GOP didn't insist on and pass the photo
ID requirement. It IS government's obligation to insure that every vote is
valid. Accountability that protects a fundamental right has a greater intangible
value than any currency.
I don't disagree with what the GOP is trying to do - to assure that every
vote is a valid vote. They are working for every voter to assure
that every vote has true value. I do think however that it is the
Secretary of State and the Attorney General who should be doing that work
- serious investigations of the potential for voter fraud. Regardless of
cost. Eventually, if you poke enough holes in the bee hive - you will
either get honey, or stung. Either result will leave Maine in a better place. If
fraud is found, it can be dealt with and stopped. If no fraud is found, then
only the true paranoids will be left to swat the bees, or vice versa.
The Portland Maine Gazette will protect all sources, including
whistleblowers, snitches, and assorted scoundrels.