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20 Years Since Hurricane Bob Hit New England
So, Are We Overdue?

The last time that New England took a direct hit from a hurricane was 20 years ago...on August 19 1991...when Hurricane Bob hit southeastern New England. As bad as Bob was...it was only a category two hurricane at landfall. The last time that New England was hit by a major hurricane...category 3...was in 1954 which is 57 years ago.

Hurricane Bob developed in the central Bahamas on August 16 1991...then steadily intensified and reached hurricane status on the evening of August 17. Bob strengthened and accelerated northeastward. The eye of Bob passed over Block Island, RI at approximately 1:30 pm on August 19 and made landfall over Newport, RI shortly before 2 pm.

Hurricane Bob brought sustained hurricane force winds to the immediate coastal communities of Rhode Island and most of southeastern Massachusetts. Strong tropical storm force winds blew across the remainder of the region with many areas receiving gusts to hurricane force east of the Connecticut River. Wind damage to trees and utility poles was common and resulted in 60 percent of residents in southeast Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts losing power. Apple and peach orchards there were extensively damaged.

Coastal communities bore the brunt of the storm with sustained winds between 75 and 100 mph. Gusts to 125 mph were recorded in Brewster and North Truro on Cape Cod...and also in Wethersfield Connecticut. The highest sustained wind...of 100 mph...was recorded in North Truro. Block Island reported sustained winds of 90 mph with gusts in excess of 105 mph which was the maximum speed of that equipment. There were 4 reports of tornadoes as Bob came ashore. The lowest barometric pressure was recorded by the USS Valdez while in the East Passage of Narragansett Bay...with a reading of 28.47.

Hurricane Bob caused a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet along the Rhode Island shore...but drove a surge of 10 to 15 feet into Buzzards Bay. The highest surges...12 to 15 feet...were observed in Onset... Bourne...Mashpee...and Wareham at the head of Buzzards Bay. Cove Road...in Mattapoisett Massachusetts...had 29 of 37 homes destroyed while Angelica Point Massachusetts lost 32 of 35 homes along the shore. Boat damage was significant with many boats torn from their moorings. Some south facing beaches on Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket lost up to 50 feet of beach due to erosion.

As is typically the case with New England hurricanes...heavy rain was focused to the west of the track of the storm. 3 To 7 inches of rain occurred across all of Rhode Island except the southeast portion...with the highest reading of 7.01 inches in foster. Less than an inch of rain occurred on cape cod to the east of the track...but that is where the highest winds and storm surge occurred.

Bob was responsible for six deaths in the region...all in Connecticut. Total damage in southern New England was approximately 680 million dollars.

So, are we overdue?

According to WeatherBELL Analytics Chief Meteorologist Joe Bastardi, a frenzy of named storms resulting in multiple hurricanes is about to be unleashed between Aug 25 and mid-September, and could pose a threat to the US during the time period.

"Rarely and certainly not since 2008 when 6 named storms in a row struck the US do we see the Atlantic basin ready to become a focal point of the Earth’s tropical activity right at the height of the hurricane season," said WeatherBELL Analytics Meteorologist Joe Bastardi.

Bastardi said that the overall global pattern favors well below-normal activity in the Southwest-Pacific over the next 3 weeks, which means nature must use the Atlantic and Eastern-Pacific basins to produce the bulk of the tropical activity.

"In a season of weak storms where 4 of 7 so far were non-tropical in origin, a frenzy of 5 to 7 true tropical storms are likely to emerge," Bastardi said. "Almost all them are likely to reach hurricane status -- and 3 or 4 of them could impact the US coast. It appears that this very active period that is emerging could rival the 2008 frenzy of storms."

The forecast period of heightened tropical activity from late August to mid-September was one of WeatherBELL Analytics' pre-season analogs.

While the Gulf of Mexico was the center point of activity in 2008, the current pattern suggests that the Gulf may represent the west side of the action this season, while New England is the Northeast-side, and Florida along with southeastern states appear to be the most ‘at risk’ for threats, according to Bastardi.

"The pattern appears ripe for a rapid fire series of storms in the coming weeks, and by mid-September the memories of the hot 2011 summer are likely to be replaced by headlines of tropical storms and hurricanes - as well as rumors of more storms to come," Bastardi added, "The first of these storms could reach the US coast the last week of August."

In talking with experienced New England meteorologists like Joe D'Aleo, Maine and New England haven't suffered a severe hurricane for two decades. That means we are overdue. And as Joe Bastardi points out, the conditions are prime for some strong weather along the East Coast.

For those who live, work or own property along the shores and waterfronts of Maine, perhaps this would be a good time to lay out a plan of exactly what you will do if a major weather event does hit. On that Bad Weather Day list:

1. check your insurance coverage so you know what protection(s) you have (or not).
2. Make sure the right people have all your contact information for home, work, the daycare, friends, relatives and so on.
3. Have you arranged a destination where you will meet if home is not an option?
4. Do you have a coastal evacuation plan or do you know what services are offered by your local emergency management team?
5. If high winds strike, you could suffer proerty damage or loss. Where will your property and financial records be if your house collapses, burns or floats off into the horizon?

A Family Emergency Plan is available at http://www.ready.gov/america/makeaplan/index.html

A sample Business Emergency Plan can be found at http://www.ready.gov/america/_downloads/sampleplan.pdf

Semper Paratus (ask a boyscout). Kenneth Capron